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Applying Anomaly-based Weather Analysis to the Prediction of Low Visibility Associated with the Coastal Fog at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in East China

【摘要】Low visibility episodes (visibility < 1000 m) were studied by applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method. A regional episode of low visibility associated with a coastal fog that occurred from 27 to 28 January 2016 over Ningbo- Zhoushan Port, Zhejiang Province, East China, was first examined. Some basic features from the anomalous weather analysis for this case were identified: (1) the process of low visibility mainly caused by coastal fog was a direct response to anomalous temperature inversion in the lower troposphere, with a warm center around the 925 hPa level, which was formed by a positive geopotential height (GPH) anomaly in the upper troposphere and a negative GPH anomaly near the surface; (2) the positive humidity anomaly was conducive to the formation of coastal fog and rain; (3) regional coastal fog formed at the moment when the southwesterly wind anomalies transferred to northeasterly wind anomalies. Other cases confirmed that the low visibility associated with coastal fog depends upon low-level inversion, a positive humidity anomaly, and a change of wind anomalies from southwesterly to northeasterly, rain and stratus cloud amount. The correlation coefficients of six-hourly inversion, 850-925-hPa-averaged temperature, GPH and humidity anomalies against visibility are —0.31, 0.40 and —0.48, respectively, reaching the 99% confidence level in the first half-years of 2015 and 2016. By applying the anomaly-based weather analysis method to medium-range model output products, such as ensemble prediction systems, the anomalous temperature—pressure pattern and humidity-wind pattern can be used to predict the process of low visibility associated with coastal fog at several days in advance.

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